The Smallest Possible Health Model
Three inputs beat twelve: activation state, usage recency/depth, and key feature adoption. Start with equal weights. If AUC/ROC against churn is ~0.5, your inputs are wrong, not your math. Fix the signals first.
Three inputs beat twelve: activation state, usage recency/depth, and key feature adoption. Start with equal weights. If AUC/ROC against churn is ~0.5, your inputs are wrong, not your math. Fix the signals first.
Attractive aggregate metrics can conceal the details we need to make informed decisions. Separate activity from effect and keep the math boring and consistent. Useful, defensible formulas:
Expansion works when eligibility, timing, and value narrative are explicit. Eligibility = adoption threshold + business context. Timing = observed usage plateau or unlocked capability. Narrative = “outcome next” not “more features.” Track win rate and payback against this criteria or change it.
Two canonical formulas: – Gross Revenue Retention (GRR) = (Starting ARR − Contraction − Churn) ÷ Starting ARR – Net Dollar Retention (NDR) = (Starting ARR + Expansion − Contraction − Churn) ÷ Starting ARR GRR shows how well you keep what you have. NDR shows whether existing customers grow enough to offset losses. They…
Digital CS isn’t “CS, but cheaper.” It’s behavior‑driven messaging, self‑serve paths that don’t humiliate users, and targeted human help where it changes the slope. I build it around three loops: – Teach the next action. Contextual nudges beat newsletters. – Detect risk early. Silence is a signal. Weird patterns are, too. – Reward progress. Show…
The first two months set posture. The job isn’t heroics—it’s clarity. Outcomes the company expects from CS. Two or three leading indicators we’ll live and die by. Cadences that expose reality fast. What I do: – Map just enough of the current journey to find leverage, then stop mapping and run plays. – Publish a…
Churn is a lagging indicator. By the time a customer cancels, the problem started months earlier, usually as low engagement or stalled adoption. If you’re reacting to churn risk at renewal time, you’re already behind. The simplest formula for keeping customers I have been able to validate is below: Retention = Experience + Outcomes(Adoption(Engagement)) Work…