The Smallest Possible Health Model
Three inputs beat twelve: activation state, usage recency/depth, and key feature adoption. Start with equal weights. If AUC/ROC against churn is ~0.5, your inputs are wrong, not your math. Fix the signals first.
Three inputs beat twelve: activation state, usage recency/depth, and key feature adoption. Start with equal weights. If AUC/ROC against churn is ~0.5, your inputs are wrong, not your math. Fix the signals first.
For most SaaS, three checkpoints prevent long tail pain: – Technical fit verified (auth, data in, integrations stable) – First value achieved (the “aha” the buyer actually cares about) – Owner named (who runs it day-to-day) If any checkpoint fails, pause expansion plays and fix root cause. Onboarding is leverage; don’t step over it.
Support resolves issues; Digital CS drives behavior change at scale. Think three loops: 1) Teach the next action (contextual nudges beat blasts) 2) Detect risk early (silence and strange patterns both matter) 3) Reward progress (show momentum) If ops, data, and CS are aligned, these loops reduce human workload while improving outcomes.
Keep risk reviews to three questions: what moved this account’s health since last review, what’s the next intervention, and what evidence says it will work. Ban status theater. If we can’t state the risk and the counterfactual clearly, log an assumption and test it.
Health scores work when they are legible and predictive. Keep the inputs few, stable, and behavior-based (e.g., activation milestones met, usage depth/recency, key feature adoption). Write the attribution rules down so you can explain changes. If you can’t predict churn or expansion better than chance, your model is a vanity metric—fix the inputs before tuning…
QBRs drift into slide parades. Run “value reviews” instead: restate the customer’s outcomes, show what moved, and agree on the next two experiments. Skip vanity metrics. End with a one‑page summary the exec can forward without translation.
Two canonical formulas: – Gross Revenue Retention (GRR) = (Starting ARR − Contraction − Churn) ÷ Starting ARR – Net Dollar Retention (NDR) = (Starting ARR + Expansion − Contraction − Churn) ÷ Starting ARR GRR shows how well you keep what you have. NDR shows whether existing customers grow enough to offset losses. They…