The Smallest Possible Health Model
Three inputs beat twelve: activation state, usage recency/depth, and key feature adoption. Start with equal weights. If AUC/ROC against churn is ~0.5, your inputs are wrong, not your math. Fix the signals first.
Three inputs beat twelve: activation state, usage recency/depth, and key feature adoption. Start with equal weights. If AUC/ROC against churn is ~0.5, your inputs are wrong, not your math. Fix the signals first.
Attractive aggregate metrics can conceal the details we need to make informed decisions. Separate activity from effect and keep the math boring and consistent. Useful, defensible formulas:
For most SaaS, three checkpoints prevent long tail pain: – Technical fit verified (auth, data in, integrations stable) – First value achieved (the “aha” the buyer actually cares about) – Owner named (who runs it day-to-day) If any checkpoint fails, pause expansion plays and fix root cause. Onboarding is leverage; don’t step over it.
QBRs drift into slide parades. Run “value reviews” instead: restate the customer’s outcomes, show what moved, and agree on the next two experiments. Skip vanity metrics. End with a one‑page summary the exec can forward without translation.
Support resolves issues; Digital CS drives behavior change at scale. Think three loops: 1) Teach the next action (contextual nudges beat blasts) 2) Detect risk early (silence and strange patterns both matter) 3) Reward progress (show momentum) If ops, data, and CS are aligned, these loops reduce human workload while improving outcomes.
Keep risk reviews to three questions: what moved this account’s health since last review, what’s the next intervention, and what evidence says it will work. Ban status theater. If we can’t state the risk and the counterfactual clearly, log an assumption and test it.
Almost every organization has attempted customer journey mapping at some point. Too often, the result is an eye-pleasing visualization that soon sits forgotten in a slide deck. This happens because we don’t use CJMs in a way that guides us in solving real business problems. This methodology takes a different approach. It focuses on creating…