The Smallest Possible Health Model
Three inputs beat twelve: activation state, usage recency/depth, and key feature adoption. Start with equal weights. If AUC/ROC against churn is ~0.5, your inputs are wrong, not your math. Fix the signals first.
Three inputs beat twelve: activation state, usage recency/depth, and key feature adoption. Start with equal weights. If AUC/ROC against churn is ~0.5, your inputs are wrong, not your math. Fix the signals first.
Support resolves issues; Digital CS drives behavior change at scale. Think three loops: 1) Teach the next action (contextual nudges beat blasts) 2) Detect risk early (silence and strange patterns both matter) 3) Reward progress (show momentum) If ops, data, and CS are aligned, these loops reduce human workload while improving outcomes.
For most SaaS, three checkpoints prevent long tail pain: – Technical fit verified (auth, data in, integrations stable) – First value achieved (the “aha” the buyer actually cares about) – Owner named (who runs it day-to-day) If any checkpoint fails, pause expansion plays and fix root cause. Onboarding is leverage; don’t step over it.
Expansion works when eligibility, timing, and value narrative are explicit. Eligibility = adoption threshold + business context. Timing = observed usage plateau or unlocked capability. Narrative = “outcome next” not “more features.” Track win rate and payback against this criteria or change it.
Involuntary churn is failure to collect (payment issues, expired cards). Voluntary churn is a decision (no value, no budget, switching). The fixes differ. Involuntary churn is mostly ops and billing hygiene. Voluntary churn is product–market fit, onboarding, and value communications. Separate the streams in your reporting or you’ll chase the wrong problems.
Playbooks without outcomes turn into activity reports. Start with 2–3 customer outcomes you can measure (time-to-first-value, usage depth, key feature adoption). Then write plays that move those, and instrument the deltas. If a play can’t be tied to a metric next week, it’s not ready.
Digital CS isn’t “CS, but cheaper.” It’s behavior‑driven messaging, self‑serve paths that don’t humiliate users, and targeted human help where it changes the slope. I build it around three loops: – Teach the next action. Contextual nudges beat newsletters. – Detect risk early. Silence is a signal. Weird patterns are, too. – Reward progress. Show…