The Smallest Possible Health Model
Three inputs beat twelve: activation state, usage recency/depth, and key feature adoption. Start with equal weights. If AUC/ROC against churn is ~0.5, your inputs are wrong, not your math. Fix the signals first.
Three inputs beat twelve: activation state, usage recency/depth, and key feature adoption. Start with equal weights. If AUC/ROC against churn is ~0.5, your inputs are wrong, not your math. Fix the signals first.
Attractive aggregate metrics can conceal the details we need to make informed decisions. Separate activity from effect and keep the math boring and consistent. Useful, defensible formulas:
Expansion works when eligibility, timing, and value narrative are explicit. Eligibility = adoption threshold + business context. Timing = observed usage plateau or unlocked capability. Narrative = “outcome next” not “more features.” Track win rate and payback against this criteria or change it.
Playbooks without outcomes turn into activity reports. Start with 2–3 customer outcomes you can measure (time-to-first-value, usage depth, key feature adoption). Then write plays that move those, and instrument the deltas. If a play can’t be tied to a metric next week, it’s not ready.
The first two months set posture. The job isn’t heroics—it’s clarity. Outcomes the company expects from CS. Two or three leading indicators we’ll live and die by. Cadences that expose reality fast. What I do: – Map just enough of the current journey to find leverage, then stop mapping and run plays. – Publish a…
Digital CS isn’t “CS, but cheaper.” It’s behavior‑driven messaging, self‑serve paths that don’t humiliate users, and targeted human help where it changes the slope. I build it around three loops: – Teach the next action. Contextual nudges beat newsletters. – Detect risk early. Silence is a signal. Weird patterns are, too. – Reward progress. Show…
QBRs drift into slide parades. Run “value reviews” instead: restate the customer’s outcomes, show what moved, and agree on the next two experiments. Skip vanity metrics. End with a one‑page summary the exec can forward without translation.